Trump and Putin Spar: Odesa Burns
Your week, decoded
Trump’s Big Play for Peace Ends in Smoke
What began as President Trump’s bold move for a ceasefire ended in wreckage.
It all started on Tuesday when Trump—never one to shy away from high-stakes deals—pitched Vladimir Putin on a 30-day freeze on killing Ukrainians.
President Trump’s bold move for a ceasefire ended in wreckage.
Trump’s goal was simple: stall the war, even if only for a month. But by Friday, the proposal had not just failed—Putin obliterated it.
Russia unleashed a wave of strikes on civilians in Odesa, a clear message from Putin: ‘I said I wouldn’t hit targets like this, Donald. Now I did. Your move.’
So much for “peace.”
Trump’s Nuclear Twist
Midweek, the Financial Times dropped a bombshell: a leaked White House proposal to take control of Ukrainian nuclear plants. The reasoning? ‘If America is funding Ukraine’s defense of it country, the White House wants leverage.’
Kyiv fired back, with Zelensky asking for Trump’s help in reclaiming Zaporizhzhia—the massive Russian-occupied nuclear power complex that remains Europe’s greatest environmental risk. If the plant is damaged, the human and environmental consequences will be historic.
Understanding the stakes, this is still an odd play by the White House. Let’s unpack it.
Trump is betting that U.S. investments in Ukraine will deter future Russian aggression. Does this match the facts?
Between 2000 and 2021, U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine totaled $12.5 billion. America’s multi-billion dollar investment in Ukraine didn’t prevent Russia from expanding its invasion against the country in 2022.
This suggests that economic ties alone are insufficient to sway Putin’s strategic desire to destroy Ukraine.
Why would one nuclear power plant make the difference in his calculation for destroying Ukraine? It’s a bet by Trump that history doesn’t support. Perhaps, Trump will prove history wrong? That’s a big bet.
Putin: Big Moves but Bigger Cracks
In Moscow, Putin flexed, but his weakness was showing.
By Tuesday, Russian forces had pushed 15 miles into Kursk, a direct rebuke of Trump’s ceasefire ambitions. Even so, Putin is vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. But by Thursday, Ukraine struck back—hitting a major Russian oil refinery in Rostov and shaking Russia’s defenses. Both Putin and Zelensky are holding their ground, for now, but it’s clear no real peace deal is in sight.
France's High Hand on European Defense
Amid rising tensions with Russia, France is asserting itself as a potential leader in European defense, sidelining the UK despite its historical role in defending Europe.
This week, French President Emmanuel Macron firmly blocked the UK from playing a role in the EU’s defense expansion, underscoring France’s desire for a more “independent” European security strategy. Macron, a strong advocate for EU strategic autonomy, has repeatedly emphasized that European defense should not be dependent on outside powers, particularly the UK or the US.
This stance is a direct challenge to the UK and US efforts to remain influential in shaping European security.
By directly excluding the UK, Macron is asserting France’s role in European defense and signaling that French companies will dominate the EU plus-up in defense.
On the Lighter Side
The Ukrainian memes have been top notch this week, as is tradition.
