RUNDOWN RECAP: Russia Stalls on Ceasefire, Poland Seeks Nuclear Weapons

Your week decoded

Russia’s Ceasefire Stance Looks Absurd by Design

The big story of this week was President Vladimir Putin’s tentative interest in a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. The Trump White House dispatched its envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow on Thursday, hoping to push negotiations forward. However, Putin’s avowed “openness” to peace contained a laundry list of demands that look to be poison pills.

Skepticism remains high: previous ceasefire negotiations have frequently been used by Russia to regroup, rearm, and reposition forces rather than as genuine steps toward de-escalation.

As I told Austin Westfall on Fox LIVE NOW, “Putin is playing the victim card in a war that he started and continues to wage. It's absurd and expected.”

For Kyiv, a temporary ceasefire could provide much-needed breathing room, but Ukrainian officials have expressed concerns that any deal must come with robust security guarantees. A poorly structured ceasefire could end up solidifying Russia’s territorial gains rather than leading to a lasting resolution.

Poland’s Nuclear Push Raises the Stakes on NATO’s Eastern Front

This week, Polish President Andrzej Duda escalated Warsaw’s calls for a stronger U.S. military presence by publicly advocating for the deployment of American nuclear weapons on Polish territory. In interviews with BBC and the Financial Times, Duda argued that hosting U.S. nuclear warheads would serve as a direct deterrent against Russian aggression while reinforcing America’s commitment to Poland’s security under NATO.

I published a deep dive on Poland’s strategic calculations for pursuing a tactical nuclear deterrent for paid subscribers. (Is this a likely prospect? Now is a great time to subscribe to find out.)

Importantly, Poland’s request is not new. Warsaw previously floated similar proposals in 2022 and 2024, but this latest appeal comes at a particularly volatile moment. Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus has heightened fears among NATO’s easternmost members, many of whom see Poland as a frontline buffer between Moscow and the rest of Europe. By hosting U.S. warheads, Poland aims to strengthen NATO’s eastern defenses, ensuring that the alliance’s nuclear posture extends deep into Central Europe.

Tracking Ukraine’s Stolen Children in Ceasefire Talks

Looking ahead, some Washington insiders are watching for more signals from Kyiv about the return of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children who were abducted and illegally deported to Russia. During recent talks in Saudi Arabia, Ukrainian officials reaffirmed that this issue remains a non-negotiable component of any broader settlement. By elevating the demand in international forums, Kyiv is signaling that a ceasefire cannot be a pretext for Moscow to cement its war crimes under the guise of diplomacy. Watch this space. It could heat up as negotiations unfold.